Lasting Impressions of The Balkans

This is my second trip to the Western Balkans, the first being to Zagreb about 2 years ago. I've also been to several countries which only emerged from behind the iron curtain in the last 20 years: the Czech Republic, Poland and Estonia have featured in my travels. Yet, in many senses, this has been a steeper learning and experience curve than those trips.

Throughout many former Eastern Bloc countries and, indeed, most Western European countries, too, there are memorials to those lost in the world wars or in the struggle for independence. There's evidence of change and loss but mostly it has been preserved or sanitised. Although divisions may still exist, they are largely hidden and the process of "moving forward" is well advanced. In Bosnia & Herzegovina and, to a lesser extent, Croatia the divisions remain, the healing is just starting and the physical scars are all too visible.

Even in Dubrovnik with its relative wealth and large number of tourists, gaps remain where buildings have been hit, the suburbs are poor and there are posters condemning the Serbian/Montenegrin bombing, showing where each shell landed. Indeed, when speaking to people the tensions between Croats and Bosniaks, Serbians etc still remain.

In Bosnia, the poverty is much more evident and the damage has been made safe but barely repaired in places. Again, I gather that the divisions remain with schools on either side teaching only their version of history to their people. Signs are meant to be bilingual but often graffiti wipes out one or other language. Political slogans, dates of importance to one side or the other and symbols (including swastikas) can be seen everywhere there is blank wall a spray can can be used on. This is not a sustainable model for peace where a common understanding, respect and future need to be forged.

These countries were at war from 1991-5 with ongoing skirmishes (e.g. In Kosovo) until recently. War is not an historical thing but something that everyone has a story about. Within two and a half of hours of London is a country which is still working through its troubles.

Yet, despite these harsh social realities, there is a softer side to these countries. The scenery is truely spectacular from the coast roads to the mountain passes, from the pretty town centres to the night time panoramas of cities, from the clean accommodation to the welcoming hosts. This was a holiday where I learnt so much of what this area has to offer.

My father remembers travelling through here after his first year at university with its amazing views; I too take away great memories and can wholeheartedly recommend a self-drive trip to explore the area. And it will not be my last trip: the national parks to the north of Croatia and Zadar are a high priority. A trip to Sarajevo is now top on my travel "to do" list.

This holiday has changed the way I see this part of the world and, as with so many of my trips, inspires me travel more around this diverse, fascinating continent of Europe.

Travel: Learning, experiencing, enjoying

As I walked across Dubrovnik harbour front this morning I witnessed some of the worst stereotypical American tourists. Only they weren't a stereotype: they were the real thing. Loud, dominating any scene, ignoring local practices in ordering a taxi and nearly shouting at the locals who were obviously a bit thick AS THEY DO NOT SPEAK ENGLISH.

That said, I have remarked several times how tricky it is to be a self-guiding tourist here. Coach tours turn up outside a venue, wander around, get fed and wander on again. A tad stereotypical again but there's less risk there. As a self-guided tourist we need direction signs (language unimportant), safe accommodation and info on what we are looking at. These things have not always been obvious here. We have not been able to find museums, monuments and hotels without a bit of search or, in a couple of cases, at all.

Yet it is easy to be a snobby tourist, stating that "my way is the only way"; I know that I have a tendency not to engage with the local population but at the same time want to avoid mass crowds. I am more comfortable in a little hotel or B&B than staying with a family or in a big all-inclusive hotel. We all have our comfort zones as travellers. It's being confident to move beyond those so we learn more, experience more and enjoying more of the world around us which has to be some of the reasons we travel for.

Beauty and Hurt in the Balkans

One of the joys of doing a PhD on a European-related theme is that I can justify trips to less known corners of my continent as "research". It's a long shot but makes me feel better about taking time off. That said, in the case of Bosnia and Croatia, the focus of my current trip, it's not that far from the truth. These countries have been the focus of EU Higher Education policies to help their recovery from the 1992-5 war and some of the students involves in my case study come from this part of the world. If Universities can be used as a "soft power" tool to bring about social change, peace and growth - as the EU desires - then this is a prime example of where it can be used. 

I was 9 when the war in Bosnia started in 1992 and remember my Mother trying to explain that this was important not simply due to the deaths but it's proximity to us. A shooting in this part of the world had lead 80years earlier to war across Europe. This is not some far flung land but part of our continent. 

And that has been one of the striking things since we landed in Dubrovnik 36 hours ago. The Dalmatian coast is a little bit Italian, the Herzegovinan river valleys seeming a little like inland France and the rocky mountains like Provence. Of course, this country is unique and its beauty stunning but, in places, this is a land that is familiar.  So to imagine a war raging through this part of the edge of Europe is challenging. 

As we drove deeper into Bosnia some of the divisions became clearer. Road signs in cyrillic were crossed out or had graffiti on them to correct into what one minority consider the "correct" language. The number of minarets was a little unexpected but with some 48% of the 3.8m population being Muslim, they shouldn't have been. There have been Muslims in this part of the world for 5 centuries. Christians in the UK have left their mark on the architecture of the country with church towers over that time, the same will be true here. At the same time as witnessing the familiar in Bosnia & Croatia, we were seeing new things, too. 

Mostar is one of the places where the divisions in this society were clearest 20 years ago in 1993 when the bridge between the 2 elements of this society was destroyed and crimes committed against the city's populations. The bridge has been rebuilt and is impressive. In the bright autumnal sunshine it is beautiful yet, all around buildings remain bombed out, bullet marks can be seen on buildings and the community remains separated into groups as can be seen by the separate schools, governance and cultural institutions. 17 years may have passed since the peace was agreed and millions invested but there is still much that divides this nation. 

As tourists, we are amongst the minority who come here though numbers are increasing. We strayed from the main tourist sites to small villages or back roads where the divisions become more evident. Schools for one group of children or another. Cemeteries, spray painted slogans, war memorials and, I suspect, local cafes dedicated to one group or another. The infrastructure here is not suited to tourists (the lack of accommodation, food or even signage indicates that) but this is, I feel, what really needs to be seen and talked about. The reality of this country rather than the glossy brochure they want to present. 

And this is where the EU and, in a strange way, my research links back in. This place needs unifying infrastructure and knowledge. The EU has experience of this following the divisions through war, the iron curtain and socio-political shifts. Through the power of schemes like the one I am researching, people learn and engage with new peoples and cultures. The "other" becomes familiar. If this is allowed to continue here, perhaps HE can have a role beyond educating. 

Today I am stunned by the concurrent beauty and still-visible ravages of war in Mostar & Bosnia generally. Tomorrow, perhaps, I can be impressed by the beauty and a country that has continued to move on from its difficult past. 

The Role of A University

I read a blog on my old School's website about how students selected universities, the role those universities play in the UK and I wanted to reply. Here's my reply to the headmaster who is also in charge of the University Brief at the Headmasters' and Headmistresses' Conference which brings together heads of many leading private schools.


Dear Mr Ramsey,

Just to prove how widely your blog is read, I am an OKS from 2001 and keep my eye on your blog for its comments on current eduction trends and updates about Kings. It is a different school to my day but the values seem to resonate through the years.

Since leaving school, I took a degree in French at the Universities of Warwick & Grenoble and a Masters in Broadcast Journalism at Sheffield University before taking a job in International Business Development at Roehampton University, putting together international research and teaching projects. I am currently a Research Development Officer at the University of Westminster where I "sell" research in the School of Social Sciences, Humanities & Languages to UK & European Research Councils, foundations, government departments and business as well as helping develop the research culture and preparations for the Research Excellence Framework assessments. In addition to this, I'm 4 out of 5 years through my PhD (in my spare time!) on European Higher Education Policy. Which leads me to a unique (if personal!) view of Higher Education. Which brings me to 2 points on your blog.

1. I agree with your advice on visiting an institution on an ordinary day. That's how I fell in love with Warwick and knew that would be my home. However, I'm not as keen on the National Student Survey (NSS) and it has a mixed reputation amongst universities and Students' Unions. It's not just because it doesn't give the answer we want (!) but issues with the questions asked and how the data is collected. Response rates vary hugely both between institutions and between individual courses at a single institutions. Conclusions are drawn from surprisingly low percentages of students on programmes. I was told by Mr Neal (I think, it could have been Dr Heritage my form tutor) when I applied to look at the percentage of students getting 1st/2:1s as this shows how well academics are teaching the talent they welcome. It's a good metric and the stats from HEFCE are based on entire student bodies on a programme rather than partial snap shots.

2. The main reason for writing is your comment on why our decision makers are based in Business, Innovation & Skills. It makes sense to those of us working in Universities. Though 18 year olds coming for tertiary level education are the focus of our reputation and our media presence, their significance is a bit more mixed. Yes, the majority of our income comes from them but we make more money on Taught Masters which is a sector-wide growth area and the most profitable area is student accommodation lettings. Universities have a rapidly growing portfolio of Continuing Professional Development opportunities and opportunities for more mature learners, a significant market in a country with an ageing population. However, though Government would want us to grow these areas and thus is part of the reason we are included in BIS, the primary reason is Research. Teaching is often only a third of an academic's contract. Academics see themselves as researchers; their PhDs are not for teaching or "knowledge transfer" activities but for their research. Universities offer a lot in terms of economic growth through research and, indeed, it is one of the things that makes us distinctive. Universities contribution is not just about education but about furthering knowledge. Some (more political) people might say it gives us the excellent Willets rather than the more divisive Give but I try not to be as partisan!

I suspect none of this comes as a surprise to you given your role on the HMC but in the spirit of discussion inspired by both the Internet and my education at King's I thought I would send a few thoughts.

With all good wishes to you and the school,
Christopher Grinbergs

Keeping Momentum Going

So another 2 months gone, another 2 chapters submitted. And what a hard couple of chapters they've been to write. The longer that this PhD goes on, the more I realise there is to do both in terms of work on the PhD and in terms of my development. I am repeatedly told that this is the highest level of degree available and it shouldn't be easy. I am also told that things get harder before they are finished. Doesn't exactly fill me with joy.

It's been a busy few months at home; there have been some serious changes in the family with 2 engagements: my Brother (expected) and Daddy (unexpected). I've also been going through some changes at work as well as trying to sort a house move in the coming weeks. Trying to keep things going on the PhD is the least of y worries and yet when I was sitting writing I remembered how much I was enjoying things. This is one of the best thugs that I have ever done which is just about enough momentum to inspire me to finish things off.

Above all, there's been the Olympics and Paralympics this summer. I was lucky to attend some brilliant sessions and also to perform in the wonderful Paralympics Opening Ceremony. Witnessing the drive and determination that the athletes had had to go through to get to those finals was inspiring. They must have dark mornings and days when they want to hide away. When I was practicing for the Paralympics Opening Ceremony there were hours of hanging around followed by slightly mindless repetitive activities. A bit like the PhD. Yet throughout on the whole we managed to keep the enthusiasm going. And of was worth it, for that moment when we walked into the stadium and performed our section. The buzz of 80,000 people cheering for you was great. The effort behind the scenes was worth it for the final public performance. And that's how I can be inspired with my PhD by the Olympics: keep going, it will be worth it.

President Hollande: the battle starts now

"oh look they're already at it" complained the daughter of the. Cottage we've hired as she saw Hollande's supporters lighting fires in Place de la Bastille n Paris to celebrate the socialist's victory.

She saw this as five year's of chaos and social unrest. Her father saw at as a time of higher taxes and increased trade via "Le black", the black market.

Last night I was sat watching the French elections with a family in Alsace. They're hard working people; factory technicians at day and at night they build they're children's homes. They built from the foundations up their home and the cottage I am sitting in. Impressive stuff.

Like two thirds of the people in Alsace last night they vote to the right. Now cannot be sure but I suspect that they voted for Maine Le Pen in round one. They, like many people in France, don't vote for an extreme right party. They vote for a party which protects jobs which are being seen as taken by immigrants. They vote for a party with lower taxes that protects pensions and a classical, family way of life.

The French far right party, the Front National, cannot be confused with neo-Nazi or fascist parties. Though some supporters may be, the majority are working people like those I sat with last night. They're not like members of the UK's British National Party and it is lazy, liberal commentators (and at times the media) that confuse their political stance.

As the family watched M Sarkozy concede victory, they were moved as they saw him moved, too. They wondered if the former president was about to retire and did not want to contemplate a role as Prime Minister if he got unelected to the legislative. Whatever, Sarkozy and Le Pen launched the fight back of the right last night with the start of the campaign for Assembly vote in a month.

Could like, Mitterrand before him, be a socialist president trying to fight his agenda through a right-wing assembly. The political fight for survival starts now for Hollande. Hollande's margin of win is only 0.09% less than Mitterand's 31 years ago. As in 1981, this socialist president is not universally accepted and it seems Hollande has won simply not being Sarkozy and, according to the family I watched this with, not being married to Carla Bruni.

Unlike in 1981, though, the pattern of voting is different. In 1981, the pattern of voting was fairly constant across the country, in this election the right have won a whole collection of central France from Alsace to the Loire with up to 67% of the vote. Presidents are president over all the country, not just those who vote for item bit this is not a ringing endorsement.

In our conversations over a glass or 6 of local wine, it became clear that the major issue for these people was immigration which challenged their jobs, a general loathing of America which has taken their money as well as a sense that Price are going up and no-one is stopping them. These opinions may not be universal but they are common. These are the issues facing a divided, economically challenged France.

The cottage in which we are staying is reflective of many areas of France. Up the road is Strasbourg for tourism, Mulhouse for factories, Germany for cash 10km away. People here stuck between employment zones, identity & in middle of EU borders. Our French hosts need to be convinced this is a president who will work for them.

Up the road in a near-by bar over a glass of wine, the general malaise and dissatisfaction with France came out again as the bar man told us a joke. The French, German and French presidents are in hell and notice a phone. The devil tells the usage is very expensive. So Obama uses it for 10 minutes for which the devil charges €2million. Merkel gives a quick call for 15 minutes and is charged €3million. Sarkozy calls for 6 hours and the devil asks him for 50 centimes. The others looked shocked and question the devil. He replies that "France is hell so it's local rates."

In many ways the joke could have been of Sarkozy or Hollande. The French are disillusioned with all their politicians and their state.

My Father kept saying that Hollande is "only five years"; those who oppose him in France are bracing themselves for that period. But to just over half of the French this is a huge opportunity for social change and something they have not seen in a generation. Hollande's battle to be a success for all the French and for elections in 2017 starts now, and it won't be easy.

France & Greece: Unexpected Twins

Being a twin, you learn to share your big days; someone also the same birthday, exam results day, personal crises, all at the same time. This was good as a child as you learnt to share and unknowingly see your own position in a wiser context at a young age than most. But very few are lucky enough to be a twin! Most older siblings a remember the time when they were the sole attention of their parents, it coming as more of a shock to share the limelight. Younger ones remember their older one getting to do things first or newer toys, some feeling they cannot live up to their older family.

Well France &Greece must feel a bit like this today. Every time France have elected a President in the past they have hit the top of the news agenda as one of the world's top countries and receiving hours of dedicated news coverage. Conversely Greek elections would be somewhere at the bottom of a UK news bulletin really if something odd had happened.

Well today the little brother in Election terms is probably the most significant. What happens in Greece will affect a whole currency and the political structure of a continent. Whether the new government can accept EU set cuts is hard to tell. Whatever, the Greek people do not like them and tonight's electoral results will reflect that.

In France, it is looking likely that Hollande will beat Sarkozy. However, turn out and how many of Le Pen's follow her in casting a blank ballot or vote for Sarkozy are unknowns so could make for a tighter race with difference between the candidates cut to a couple of points.

Whatever, though many will focus on France tonight, Greece remains the needy younger brother. However they vote, to misquote, "We are fearful of the Greeks, even when they bring (electoral) gifts."

So that's the UK Vote

Sometimes Eurovision has the right idea. 4 hours of gripping TV and then the world elects a winner.

Well tonight scenes were more like the contested 2000 Florida election than any Mayoral vote I have seen: missing boxes, delayed counts & all the melodrama of a good 19th century play.

And Boris won. Just. And I underestimated the strength of the Labour vote but predicted correctly that all coalition parties would be hit in the local elections.

So my UK predictions were a tad out but I stand by my prediction of Hollande just beating Sarkozy and that Greek minority parties will do well. o

But this morning Labour must be pleased but unsure how to win the elections The Lib Dema need to save themselves. And the Tories need to work out how to appeal to both left and right to guarantee success.

So democracy roughly worked in the UK. But the result and the futures are becoming even harder to predict, as are the scores. So now to France and green. It'll be fascinating.

Local Elections: Anything but Local Results.

And the right voting for anything bar the Tories. 

As with all local elections, it is not a surprise that the results are mixed, complicated and that the incumbent government has done badly. 

However, some 4 hours after the polls closed the results seem to have been fairly conclusive this evening with Labour up about 18% and the Cons plus Lib Dems both down 9% each.  For me, this shows that all the coalition parties have been hit hard by the policies rather than just the Lib Dems as was the case in 2011.  The 2011 vote may have been particularly hard on the Lib Dems given the relative disappointment with them in government.

The Tories and Lib Dems will be challenged and disheartened by this but not surprised with this case of mid-term blues.  The Lib Dems will be encouraged by some of the challenging councils they managed to hold but the shift to Greens or local interest parties (e.g in Wire Forest) indicate an ‘anyone bar this lot’ vote.  Likewise, the Tories may be disappointed by the gain in the UKIP vote.  Though UKIP will only end up with a handful of seats across the country but their significance will be greater.  These UKIP successes, coupled with their high poling in other areas, indicate dissatisfaction not with a right government but with this right government’s policies. 

Just as I did not predict such coalition losses, I think the Labour gains may be beyond what they expected.  It still doesn’t feel like a slide to the Labour Party.  Their leader may be safe after tonight, their policies may be less so if they are to win the next election. 

And yet we are still in the very early days of these results. If the exit poills are right, the results from London will be used by the Tories to defend their position even though the Assembly results may see them with reduced power. 

This evening seems to show 3 things.  Firstly, people are returning to the left.  Secondly, many people are still leaning to the right at the moment.  But, thirdly, they are not always that keen on these coalition policies.  Not an easy message for Cameron to contemplate and these local results will have national consequences.  

Elections Across the UK & Europe

Elections go in cycles in the UK much to the confusion of some of our neighbours and this year is one of the slightly fuller sets with local elections in Engand, Wales and Scotland, a handful of mayoral referendums and, of course, the London Mayoral election. These aren't quite the largest set of local elections but they're significant so I'll be watching England & Wales' results overnight, the Scottish vote tomorrow morning then the London Mayoral result late tomorrow afternoon.

But we're not the only ones to be voting: after a sharp debate last night, France will be deciding on its new President on Sunday and I'll be in Alsace to see that. Possibly more significantly, Greece will also be voting which could have important consequences for the future of the Euro.

Some predictions:
UK:
- Conservatives down but do better than some predict with Lib Dems again taking the hit, as in 2011, and just scraping double figures. Lab good night with Tories arguing that any gains insignificant and down to mid-term blues but Miliband does not need to worry about his job tomorrow. SNP to have poorer showing in Scotland, the party suffering from distraction from the economy with independence issues.
- Boris to win London. Ken has mixed night but does better in second round, some will question whether this is the end for him. Paddick goes to single figures and I wouldn't be surprised if Siobhan (or Greens) beet him into 3rd. However, Tories lose seats in Assembly to Lab and bad night for Lib Dems.

France:
- Hollande to win but Sarkozy to run it a bit tighter than expected, gaining a little of Le Pen's vote. Turnout down/more spoilt ballet papers showing voter dissatisfaction with both.

Greece:
- Minority p armies do well with coalition talks following. Vote seen as condemning of main party's acceptance of cuts.
- EU markets wobble on Monday expecting renegotiations of EU agreements and again when the UK opens on Tuesday.

All of these are pure guesses based on reading around, having followed these things for a number of years and talking to people in London/France/Greece. So all highly unreliable but good fun to look out for overnight.