Why the Tories need to act like they are in opposition

So it's been announced, at last, that the new leader of the Labour Party is a Miliband and it is of the Ed variety. No surprises there then but the margin is hardly a ringing endorsement for him. One is left wondering how long he will last and whether we are simply waiting for a couple of failures in local elections before a fuller election is held with the likes of Alan Johnson standing. Ed Miliband does not feel - yet - like a Prime Minister in waiting. Unlike Cameron who felt like he might make it, the younger Miliband does not feel like he will make it all the way to number 10 or have the right gravitas for such a role. But I may be wrong and his leader’s speech may give out different signals.


Some of the papers have already been calling the next election as a Tory win. Despite my above comments, I think they need to be careful, even 4 months into a 5 year parliament, of how they plan to take on new Labour. Both parties now have younger politicians at their helm and it is clear that over the last few weeks there has been a passing of power to a new generation. The young, fresh aspect of Cameron was lost the moment he came into power and further hidden now there is newer, younger man on the scene.
Also, all the Tories are in power, they neither won the last election nor have full power. They are having to react far more to what another party says (the Lib Dems) than ever before. Just like the Lib Dems, the Tories will need to set out their own stall and show what they are about. What one can see if coalition politics is to continue is that you have parties campaigning on one issue and compromising in power. We’ve seen this for years in the Welsh Assembly and Scottish Parliament as well as in numerous councils but the difference between promises in manifestos and actual plans for government are only going to be greater now coalition has come to Westminster.
The Tories also need to work out what will happen if they do win an outright majority in the next parliament; do they keep some links with the Lib Dems as it will be somewhat down to their involvement if they remain in power or do they cast Britain’s third party off as they will have fulfilled their usefulness? And the Lib Dems need to ask if they could swap sides and work with Labour if there is a slight shift in the numbers?
The Tories also need to be careful as the next election will come sooner than they think. A set term parliament means that we cannot be surprised so after the council and European elections in 2014, the campaign will start, particularly at the party conferences in the autumn of 2014. In many ways, just as this year and in 1997, when the date of the election is known the campaign lasts almost forever. So the parties only have 3 and a half years until campaigning for the general election will slowly start. Not long to solve the problems of state or develop new policies on how to tackle the big issues.

What I am trying to highlight here that coalition government coupled with a new Leader on the Labour side makes the next election unreadable. Along with the current political and economic issues, one cannot predict easily how politics will look in five years time. Therefore, the Tories need to act as if they are in opposition, creating a personality and identity away from the other parties and being self-critical of their acts in government. Just like the Lib Dems, the Tories must defend their identity for their own electoral success and also to make sure how politics do not go from Blue, Red and Yellow to a shade of Beige.
But the Tories have always been clever at positioning themselves (with or without Lord Ashcroft’s cash) so discussions will already be underway. But what would my betting be for the next election even at this early stage? I am not sure that much will change. Labour does not look yet like a strong force and the country is not that much in love with the Tories and has certainly fallen out of love with the Lib Dems. I would bet on a small Tory majority or a further coalition as we head into the next parliament. But who knows? As the cliché goes, a week is a long time in politics so four and a half years is a life time in – particularly coalition – politics.