President Hollande: the battle starts now

"oh look they're already at it" complained the daughter of the. Cottage we've hired as she saw Hollande's supporters lighting fires in Place de la Bastille n Paris to celebrate the socialist's victory.

She saw this as five year's of chaos and social unrest. Her father saw at as a time of higher taxes and increased trade via "Le black", the black market.

Last night I was sat watching the French elections with a family in Alsace. They're hard working people; factory technicians at day and at night they build they're children's homes. They built from the foundations up their home and the cottage I am sitting in. Impressive stuff.

Like two thirds of the people in Alsace last night they vote to the right. Now cannot be sure but I suspect that they voted for Maine Le Pen in round one. They, like many people in France, don't vote for an extreme right party. They vote for a party which protects jobs which are being seen as taken by immigrants. They vote for a party with lower taxes that protects pensions and a classical, family way of life.

The French far right party, the Front National, cannot be confused with neo-Nazi or fascist parties. Though some supporters may be, the majority are working people like those I sat with last night. They're not like members of the UK's British National Party and it is lazy, liberal commentators (and at times the media) that confuse their political stance.

As the family watched M Sarkozy concede victory, they were moved as they saw him moved, too. They wondered if the former president was about to retire and did not want to contemplate a role as Prime Minister if he got unelected to the legislative. Whatever, Sarkozy and Le Pen launched the fight back of the right last night with the start of the campaign for Assembly vote in a month.

Could like, Mitterrand before him, be a socialist president trying to fight his agenda through a right-wing assembly. The political fight for survival starts now for Hollande. Hollande's margin of win is only 0.09% less than Mitterand's 31 years ago. As in 1981, this socialist president is not universally accepted and it seems Hollande has won simply not being Sarkozy and, according to the family I watched this with, not being married to Carla Bruni.

Unlike in 1981, though, the pattern of voting is different. In 1981, the pattern of voting was fairly constant across the country, in this election the right have won a whole collection of central France from Alsace to the Loire with up to 67% of the vote. Presidents are president over all the country, not just those who vote for item bit this is not a ringing endorsement.

In our conversations over a glass or 6 of local wine, it became clear that the major issue for these people was immigration which challenged their jobs, a general loathing of America which has taken their money as well as a sense that Price are going up and no-one is stopping them. These opinions may not be universal but they are common. These are the issues facing a divided, economically challenged France.

The cottage in which we are staying is reflective of many areas of France. Up the road is Strasbourg for tourism, Mulhouse for factories, Germany for cash 10km away. People here stuck between employment zones, identity & in middle of EU borders. Our French hosts need to be convinced this is a president who will work for them.

Up the road in a near-by bar over a glass of wine, the general malaise and dissatisfaction with France came out again as the bar man told us a joke. The French, German and French presidents are in hell and notice a phone. The devil tells the usage is very expensive. So Obama uses it for 10 minutes for which the devil charges €2million. Merkel gives a quick call for 15 minutes and is charged €3million. Sarkozy calls for 6 hours and the devil asks him for 50 centimes. The others looked shocked and question the devil. He replies that "France is hell so it's local rates."

In many ways the joke could have been of Sarkozy or Hollande. The French are disillusioned with all their politicians and their state.

My Father kept saying that Hollande is "only five years"; those who oppose him in France are bracing themselves for that period. But to just over half of the French this is a huge opportunity for social change and something they have not seen in a generation. Hollande's battle to be a success for all the French and for elections in 2017 starts now, and it won't be easy.

France & Greece: Unexpected Twins

Being a twin, you learn to share your big days; someone also the same birthday, exam results day, personal crises, all at the same time. This was good as a child as you learnt to share and unknowingly see your own position in a wiser context at a young age than most. But very few are lucky enough to be a twin! Most older siblings a remember the time when they were the sole attention of their parents, it coming as more of a shock to share the limelight. Younger ones remember their older one getting to do things first or newer toys, some feeling they cannot live up to their older family.

Well France &Greece must feel a bit like this today. Every time France have elected a President in the past they have hit the top of the news agenda as one of the world's top countries and receiving hours of dedicated news coverage. Conversely Greek elections would be somewhere at the bottom of a UK news bulletin really if something odd had happened.

Well today the little brother in Election terms is probably the most significant. What happens in Greece will affect a whole currency and the political structure of a continent. Whether the new government can accept EU set cuts is hard to tell. Whatever, the Greek people do not like them and tonight's electoral results will reflect that.

In France, it is looking likely that Hollande will beat Sarkozy. However, turn out and how many of Le Pen's follow her in casting a blank ballot or vote for Sarkozy are unknowns so could make for a tighter race with difference between the candidates cut to a couple of points.

Whatever, though many will focus on France tonight, Greece remains the needy younger brother. However they vote, to misquote, "We are fearful of the Greeks, even when they bring (electoral) gifts."

So that's the UK Vote

Sometimes Eurovision has the right idea. 4 hours of gripping TV and then the world elects a winner.

Well tonight scenes were more like the contested 2000 Florida election than any Mayoral vote I have seen: missing boxes, delayed counts & all the melodrama of a good 19th century play.

And Boris won. Just. And I underestimated the strength of the Labour vote but predicted correctly that all coalition parties would be hit in the local elections.

So my UK predictions were a tad out but I stand by my prediction of Hollande just beating Sarkozy and that Greek minority parties will do well. o

But this morning Labour must be pleased but unsure how to win the elections The Lib Dema need to save themselves. And the Tories need to work out how to appeal to both left and right to guarantee success.

So democracy roughly worked in the UK. But the result and the futures are becoming even harder to predict, as are the scores. So now to France and green. It'll be fascinating.

Local Elections: Anything but Local Results.

And the right voting for anything bar the Tories. 

As with all local elections, it is not a surprise that the results are mixed, complicated and that the incumbent government has done badly. 

However, some 4 hours after the polls closed the results seem to have been fairly conclusive this evening with Labour up about 18% and the Cons plus Lib Dems both down 9% each.  For me, this shows that all the coalition parties have been hit hard by the policies rather than just the Lib Dems as was the case in 2011.  The 2011 vote may have been particularly hard on the Lib Dems given the relative disappointment with them in government.

The Tories and Lib Dems will be challenged and disheartened by this but not surprised with this case of mid-term blues.  The Lib Dems will be encouraged by some of the challenging councils they managed to hold but the shift to Greens or local interest parties (e.g in Wire Forest) indicate an ‘anyone bar this lot’ vote.  Likewise, the Tories may be disappointed by the gain in the UKIP vote.  Though UKIP will only end up with a handful of seats across the country but their significance will be greater.  These UKIP successes, coupled with their high poling in other areas, indicate dissatisfaction not with a right government but with this right government’s policies. 

Just as I did not predict such coalition losses, I think the Labour gains may be beyond what they expected.  It still doesn’t feel like a slide to the Labour Party.  Their leader may be safe after tonight, their policies may be less so if they are to win the next election. 

And yet we are still in the very early days of these results. If the exit poills are right, the results from London will be used by the Tories to defend their position even though the Assembly results may see them with reduced power. 

This evening seems to show 3 things.  Firstly, people are returning to the left.  Secondly, many people are still leaning to the right at the moment.  But, thirdly, they are not always that keen on these coalition policies.  Not an easy message for Cameron to contemplate and these local results will have national consequences.  

Elections Across the UK & Europe

Elections go in cycles in the UK much to the confusion of some of our neighbours and this year is one of the slightly fuller sets with local elections in Engand, Wales and Scotland, a handful of mayoral referendums and, of course, the London Mayoral election. These aren't quite the largest set of local elections but they're significant so I'll be watching England & Wales' results overnight, the Scottish vote tomorrow morning then the London Mayoral result late tomorrow afternoon.

But we're not the only ones to be voting: after a sharp debate last night, France will be deciding on its new President on Sunday and I'll be in Alsace to see that. Possibly more significantly, Greece will also be voting which could have important consequences for the future of the Euro.

Some predictions:
UK:
- Conservatives down but do better than some predict with Lib Dems again taking the hit, as in 2011, and just scraping double figures. Lab good night with Tories arguing that any gains insignificant and down to mid-term blues but Miliband does not need to worry about his job tomorrow. SNP to have poorer showing in Scotland, the party suffering from distraction from the economy with independence issues.
- Boris to win London. Ken has mixed night but does better in second round, some will question whether this is the end for him. Paddick goes to single figures and I wouldn't be surprised if Siobhan (or Greens) beet him into 3rd. However, Tories lose seats in Assembly to Lab and bad night for Lib Dems.

France:
- Hollande to win but Sarkozy to run it a bit tighter than expected, gaining a little of Le Pen's vote. Turnout down/more spoilt ballet papers showing voter dissatisfaction with both.

Greece:
- Minority p armies do well with coalition talks following. Vote seen as condemning of main party's acceptance of cuts.
- EU markets wobble on Monday expecting renegotiations of EU agreements and again when the UK opens on Tuesday.

All of these are pure guesses based on reading around, having followed these things for a number of years and talking to people in London/France/Greece. So all highly unreliable but good fun to look out for overnight.