Elections Across the UK & Europe

Elections go in cycles in the UK much to the confusion of some of our neighbours and this year is one of the slightly fuller sets with local elections in Engand, Wales and Scotland, a handful of mayoral referendums and, of course, the London Mayoral election. These aren't quite the largest set of local elections but they're significant so I'll be watching England & Wales' results overnight, the Scottish vote tomorrow morning then the London Mayoral result late tomorrow afternoon.

But we're not the only ones to be voting: after a sharp debate last night, France will be deciding on its new President on Sunday and I'll be in Alsace to see that. Possibly more significantly, Greece will also be voting which could have important consequences for the future of the Euro.

Some predictions:
UK:
- Conservatives down but do better than some predict with Lib Dems again taking the hit, as in 2011, and just scraping double figures. Lab good night with Tories arguing that any gains insignificant and down to mid-term blues but Miliband does not need to worry about his job tomorrow. SNP to have poorer showing in Scotland, the party suffering from distraction from the economy with independence issues.
- Boris to win London. Ken has mixed night but does better in second round, some will question whether this is the end for him. Paddick goes to single figures and I wouldn't be surprised if Siobhan (or Greens) beet him into 3rd. However, Tories lose seats in Assembly to Lab and bad night for Lib Dems.

France:
- Hollande to win but Sarkozy to run it a bit tighter than expected, gaining a little of Le Pen's vote. Turnout down/more spoilt ballet papers showing voter dissatisfaction with both.

Greece:
- Minority p armies do well with coalition talks following. Vote seen as condemning of main party's acceptance of cuts.
- EU markets wobble on Monday expecting renegotiations of EU agreements and again when the UK opens on Tuesday.

All of these are pure guesses based on reading around, having followed these things for a number of years and talking to people in London/France/Greece. So all highly unreliable but good fun to look out for overnight.