Monday 7 May 2012

President Hollande: the battle starts now

"oh look they're already at it" complained the daughter of the. Cottage we've hired as she saw Hollande's supporters lighting fires in Place de la Bastille n Paris to celebrate the socialist's victory.

She saw this as five year's of chaos and social unrest. Her father saw at as a time of higher taxes and increased trade via "Le black", the black market.

Last night I was sat watching the French elections with a family in Alsace. They're hard working people; factory technicians at day and at night they build they're children's homes. They built from the foundations up their home and the cottage I am sitting in. Impressive stuff.

Like two thirds of the people in Alsace last night they vote to the right. Now cannot be sure but I suspect that they voted for Maine Le Pen in round one. They, like many people in France, don't vote for an extreme right party. They vote for a party which protects jobs which are being seen as taken by immigrants. They vote for a party with lower taxes that protects pensions and a classical, family way of life.

The French far right party, the Front National, cannot be confused with neo-Nazi or fascist parties. Though some supporters may be, the majority are working people like those I sat with last night. They're not like members of the UK's British National Party and it is lazy, liberal commentators (and at times the media) that confuse their political stance.

As the family watched M Sarkozy concede victory, they were moved as they saw him moved, too. They wondered if the former president was about to retire and did not want to contemplate a role as Prime Minister if he got unelected to the legislative. Whatever, Sarkozy and Le Pen launched the fight back of the right last night with the start of the campaign for Assembly vote in a month.

Could like, Mitterrand before him, be a socialist president trying to fight his agenda through a right-wing assembly. The political fight for survival starts now for Hollande. Hollande's margin of win is only 0.09% less than Mitterand's 31 years ago. As in 1981, this socialist president is not universally accepted and it seems Hollande has won simply not being Sarkozy and, according to the family I watched this with, not being married to Carla Bruni.

Unlike in 1981, though, the pattern of voting is different. In 1981, the pattern of voting was fairly constant across the country, in this election the right have won a whole collection of central France from Alsace to the Loire with up to 67% of the vote. Presidents are president over all the country, not just those who vote for item bit this is not a ringing endorsement.

In our conversations over a glass or 6 of local wine, it became clear that the major issue for these people was immigration which challenged their jobs, a general loathing of America which has taken their money as well as a sense that Price are going up and no-one is stopping them. These opinions may not be universal but they are common. These are the issues facing a divided, economically challenged France.

The cottage in which we are staying is reflective of many areas of France. Up the road is Strasbourg for tourism, Mulhouse for factories, Germany for cash 10km away. People here stuck between employment zones, identity & in middle of EU borders. Our French hosts need to be convinced this is a president who will work for them.

Up the road in a near-by bar over a glass of wine, the general malaise and dissatisfaction with France came out again as the bar man told us a joke. The French, German and French presidents are in hell and notice a phone. The devil tells the usage is very expensive. So Obama uses it for 10 minutes for which the devil charges €2million. Merkel gives a quick call for 15 minutes and is charged €3million. Sarkozy calls for 6 hours and the devil asks him for 50 centimes. The others looked shocked and question the devil. He replies that "France is hell so it's local rates."

In many ways the joke could have been of Sarkozy or Hollande. The French are disillusioned with all their politicians and their state.

My Father kept saying that Hollande is "only five years"; those who oppose him in France are bracing themselves for that period. But to just over half of the French this is a huge opportunity for social change and something they have not seen in a generation. Hollande's battle to be a success for all the French and for elections in 2017 starts now, and it won't be easy.

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