Local Elections: Anything but Local Results.

And the right voting for anything bar the Tories. 

As with all local elections, it is not a surprise that the results are mixed, complicated and that the incumbent government has done badly. 

However, some 4 hours after the polls closed the results seem to have been fairly conclusive this evening with Labour up about 18% and the Cons plus Lib Dems both down 9% each.  For me, this shows that all the coalition parties have been hit hard by the policies rather than just the Lib Dems as was the case in 2011.  The 2011 vote may have been particularly hard on the Lib Dems given the relative disappointment with them in government.

The Tories and Lib Dems will be challenged and disheartened by this but not surprised with this case of mid-term blues.  The Lib Dems will be encouraged by some of the challenging councils they managed to hold but the shift to Greens or local interest parties (e.g in Wire Forest) indicate an ‘anyone bar this lot’ vote.  Likewise, the Tories may be disappointed by the gain in the UKIP vote.  Though UKIP will only end up with a handful of seats across the country but their significance will be greater.  These UKIP successes, coupled with their high poling in other areas, indicate dissatisfaction not with a right government but with this right government’s policies. 

Just as I did not predict such coalition losses, I think the Labour gains may be beyond what they expected.  It still doesn’t feel like a slide to the Labour Party.  Their leader may be safe after tonight, their policies may be less so if they are to win the next election. 

And yet we are still in the very early days of these results. If the exit poills are right, the results from London will be used by the Tories to defend their position even though the Assembly results may see them with reduced power. 

This evening seems to show 3 things.  Firstly, people are returning to the left.  Secondly, many people are still leaning to the right at the moment.  But, thirdly, they are not always that keen on these coalition policies.  Not an easy message for Cameron to contemplate and these local results will have national consequences.