General Election - The Story So Far.

It’s just after 5am in the morning in the UK (6am where I am in France) and the family abandoned me about 90 minutes ago to keep watching the results as they come in. Elections are exciting and, as one journalist once said, they are good news events as they have a start, middle and end. And yet tonight’s does not seem to be an end but rather a continuation, a story extending way beyond tonight. In 2005 we were rapidly approaching a result at this hour and this time we are nowhere near. There seems to be a lack of celebration over the democracy taking place – and certainly no victory dances from any of the parties.


In my previous post I made a variety of predictions – how are they doing now?

1. Constituencies in which the family voted: Croydon North is still to declare, Clwyd South swung by 6% to Conservatives but still safe Labour and Bury St Eds swung to Lib Dems by 2.8% but firmly Conservative. The Lib Dems have had a very bad night and are no further ahead. Labour has had a bad night but perhaps not as bad as they might have expected. And the Tory’s momentum did not move them forward them fast enough.

2. Turn out is up and about 65-70% so nearly 1997 levels so a tight election obviously pulled out the voters even if the TV debates may not have thrown things (as seen by the Lib Dem results).

3. Minorities have not done well – Wyre Forest now Tory, Plaid lost a seat, SNP did not gain but it is looking likely that the Greens have got Brighton Pavillion. Interesting story in Northern Ireland with Peter Robinson losing his seat but still being first minister in the Northern Ireland Assembly. He says he still has a mandate but it’s not clear he does.

4. The percentage of the vote is yet to be clear but it looks like Conservatives take some 37%, Labour 27%, Lib Dems 23% and others 13%. Not very significant and though the proportion of seats in the final House of Commons will not reflect this, it is not quite as important had the Lib Dems beat Labour into third.

5. The results. A Conservative Administration looks likely, probably with a minority government and not the small win I predicted. A Lib Lab pact will not hold sufficient seats to win and a Con Lib link unlikely.  But it's not in the bag that the Tories will get over 300 yet - and they will definitely not get over 325. 

One of the major stories I did not predict was that some people would not be able vote and problems with the voting system. This will rumble on along with the discussions over voting reform and electoral form will feature in the next few years. 

So what next? Results will continue dribbling in over the coming hours but by tomorrow afternoon I think there will be a collection of trips to Buckingham Palace but the answers are yet to be clear.

UPDATE AT 0552
Well, three interesting stories within moments of eachother. 
Croydon North had a fractional swing to Labour of 0.3% with an increase in their majority.  Interesting how some trends are bucked. 
The Greens have gained Brighton Pavillion which is a new party in the Commons and another complication in predicting coalitions. 
And the BBC have a prediction of Conservative 306 seats, Labour 262 seats, Lib Dems 55 seats and Others 27 seats.  So there is now the room for a Lib Lab Coalition would command 317 seats so a minority government but the Tories must be worried.  Keep watching.  The trading continues.